Extreme weather events, including floods and droughts, are a leading cause of crop losses in the United States. Research frequently focuses on crop management strategies under long-term drought conditions, providing farmers limited information to successfully respond to the short-term hazards of flash floods and flash droughts. A multidisciplinary team led by John Schwartz, professor and director of the Tennessee Water Resources Research Center, seeks to fill this research gap with support from the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research (FFAR).
During flash droughts, soil moisture decreases sharply over one to two weeks. “They’re very hard to predict,” said Yuefeng Hao, assistant research professor at UT’s Institute for a Secure and Sustainable Environment. “In Tennessee, we’re seeing flash droughts increasingly occur in early summer, causing producer challenges around when to plant, when to irrigate, and whether to invest in new or expanded irrigation systems.”
Hao serves as project co-PI alongside ISSE Director Mingzhou Jin and UT Institute of Agriculture Professors Brian Leib and Shawn Hawkins. Together, the team is applying expertise in engineering, soil science, irrigation, and community outreach to develop a decision support tool for row crop producers facing short-term weather extremes.
The project was awarded a three-year grant from FFAR, which was established as part of the 2014 Farm Bill to fund research on nationally and internationally significant agricultural challenges. UT is matching FFAR funds.
During the first full year of the project, the team analyzed statewide remote sensing data, in-field measurements, and historical trends. “We built and mapped a 45-year record of Tennessee’s floods and flash droughts,” Hao said. The team sought to understand how weather, hydrology, vegetation cover, and other factors combine to drive extreme events.
Hao discovered that flash droughts are typically followed by heavy precipitation and a high likelihood of flooding. “Farmers are dealing with the compound impacts,” Hao said. “This factors into our modeling.”
Now, the team is creating the decision support tool prototype. They’re developing an AI-driven model that uses historical and real-time data to predict the probability of various irrigation management outcomes for different crops. During 2026, they’ll validate and calibrate the model, test it with stakeholders, and engage in technology transfer with farmers.
Throughout the project, UT Extension and AgResearch and Education Centers have played key roles. “They communicate directly with the farming community,” Schwartz said. “Stakeholder input has been vital.”
Once complete, the tool will demonstrate “if/then” cases to farmers. “It will say, based on these weather and trend factors, here’s the probability of a flash drought. If you take this irrigation management action, then here’s the probability of this outcome for your crop,” Schwartz explained.
“It comes down to reducing uncertainty and thus reducing farmers’ risk,” he said. “Thanks to support from FFAR and UT, they’ll gain a new tool to inform management decisions and help maximize water use efficiency, minimize crop losses, and build resilience to short-term extreme weather events. That contributes to sustaining their operations profitably over the long term. That’s important for our state and the Southeast.”
Author
Meghan McDonald